Who is Cursing the Wimbledon Draw?

Winning in tennis, particularly in a Grand Slam tournament where you are really only dealing with the best of the best, is mostly about talent.

If you look at the players that make the quarterfinals in these tournaments, you will see the same names over and over again and there are generally all players ranked in the top 10 or 15. That's no accident.

But we can't pretend like luck doesn't play into it.

The draw, one of the few things the players can't prepare for or control, can greatly affect a player's run through the field. A tough draw, even if it doesn't knock him out, can greatly tax a player before he gets to the late stages. A soft draw can keep a player fresh before he gets into the late rounds against the tougher players.

Heading into the 2013 edition of the Wimbledon Championships, let's take a look at the players that were saddled with a tough draw.

Roger Federer

Fed's early-round matches won't strike anyone as particularly daunting. The ranked players in his 1/8th of the draw include players that aren't all that comfortable on grass in Nicolas Almagro and Fabio Fognini and a relatively unproven player in Jerzy Janowicz. The only real dangerous floater in the section is Lukas Rosol, the Czech player who upset Rafael Nadal last year.

The part that has to stick in Federer's craw is that Nadal, who is seeded fifth, ended up in his quarter. In the past, Federer has probably felt pretty confident in his ability to beat Nadal on this surface, but the rivalry between the two has been trending away from Roger for quite some time now.

At this stage of their respective careers, and with Nadal playing so well at the moment, it's just hard to imagine Federer being able to beat Nadal.

Sam Querrey

After bottoming out a couple of years ago due to nagging injuries and ailments, Sam has done a nice job of rebounding to get himself back around the top 20.

But now that he has gotten back to playing consistent tennis, he's more than due for a breakout performance in a Grand Slam. He hasn't advanced to the fourth round of a major since the 2010 US Open.

If he's going to do that here, he's going to have to escape a pretty difficult first round match against Bernard Tomic. The young Australian has had a draining few months what with the drama surrounding his father, but if he can focus and play the way he is capable of, he has the talent to make a deep run. He did make the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2011.

Making things tougher, if he is able to get past Tomic and the winner of Blake/DeBakker in the second round, he will likely end up opposite Richard Gasquet, who has been playing arguably the best tennis of his career over the last year or so.

Stanislas Wawrinka

Stan has become something of a tragic character. He has done a fantastic job of turning himself into a consistent top-15 player. He has even gone on to play some of the best tennis of his career over the last year or so, but he is often undone by an unfortunate draw or by a marathon where the opponent matches him shot for shot. 

Looking at what he has ahead of him at Wimbledon, it could be setting up to be more of the same.

In the first round, he drew the scrappy Lleyton Hewitt. Even if Hewitt doesn't have what it takes to rise to the occasion and win this match, he's going to make Stan work. In a way, you could also look at this as a really tough draw for Hewitt, as Rusty has played well enough in some of these recent majors to advance into the second or third round, but he has also found himself up against stout opposition more often than not.

If Stan gets past Hewitt and his second round opponent, he could very well have a date with big John Isner. It remains to be seen how much Isner is going to have coming off of his tough match at the French Open with Tommy Haas, but even if he's not at his very best, that serve will still make things tough.

Fabio Fognini

Even though he's "just" seeded 30th, I think it's pretty neat that Fognini has worked his way into consistently being seeded at Grand Slam events.

It would be even better if he could turn this run of good form into a nice, extended run at a major where he has advanced past the second round just once, but that may not be in the cards.

He gets his tournament underway against a tricky player in Jurgen Melzer. The Austrian is a solid top-40 player that was ranked as high as eighth in the relatively recent past. Above all else, though, Melzer is a lefty with some real pop in his racket and those guys are few and far between on tour.

If Fognini is able to advance past Melzer, he could match up with Lukas Rosol. He is a big hitter that, as I mentioned earlier, knocked Nadal out last year.

And if Fabio is able to fight his way past those two, he will, in all likelihood, have a date with none other than Roger Federer. 

Tommy Robredo

Robredo has given us one of the better comeback stories in recent memory. After falling way down the rankings in 2011 and early 2012, Robredo rebounded nicely and capped off his run back up the rankings with a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open this year. It was the first time he had made the quarters of a major since the 2009 French Open.

As a reward, Robredo has been stuck with a particularly tough path if he wants to make a run at Wimbledon, a tournament where he has had little success anyway.

He should be fine in the first round when he faces off against Alex Bogomolov, Jr., but from there, it gets difficult. His second round opponent will likely be Nicolas Mahut, a player who prefers the grass and will be coming off of his first ATP singles title after he beat Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-4 in The Netherlands this past week.

If he can get past Mahut, he will likely go head-to-head with Andy Murray. That's not exactly a formula for success for Tommy.

Ryan Harrison

It has become a running joke that you can take it to the bank that Ryan Harrison will end up opposite a seeded player in the first round of a major. American tennis fans are getting antsy for Harrison to make his big move up the rankings, but that's difficult to do with the type of draws he has gotten.

This time around, he finds himself paired with Jeremy Chardy. Seeded 28th, Chardy is a player that Harrison can beat, but it's not going to easy. The Frenchman has had a fantastic 2013 and he very well may be playing the best tennis of his career.

If Harrison were to pull the upset and beat Chardy, his second round match should be significantly easier, but waiting for him in the third round will probably be Novak Djokovic.


  

Loss to Serbia Highlights Issue in US Davis Cup Lineup

I have gone on the record as saying that I'm bullish on the current US Davis Cup lineup moving forward.

The Bryan brothers have said they aren't looking at retirement until after the 2016 Olympic games and given the longevity that most doubles players enjoy, there is no reason to expect them to slow down before then.

John Isner and Sam Querrey may not give you the ceiling of an Andy Roddick in his prime, but you certainly could do at lot worse. Players with their serves are always going to be competitive.

I also think it helps that these four, barring injuries and things of that nature, are the obvious four players to select. Over the last several years, the parts had been shuffled quite a bit as Roddick began to take some Davis Cup ties off, James Blake was forced to take more time off due to injuries and Mardy Fish had a late-career resurgence.

I think there is something to be said for continuity, even in a sport there the "team" doesn't compete together.

The downside of this lineup is that is has its limitations.

Isner and Querrey are nice players. They both feature a dangerous weapon in their respective serves. Against most players they will face in early-round Davis Cup matches, that will be enough.

They run into problems, though, when they come up against teams that feature an elite player, like they did this past weekend against Novak Djokovic and Serbia. Neither guy is known for digging deep and coming up with awe-inspiring performances when faced with a top-flight player. Isner's win against Federer in Davis Cup last year comes to mind, but that's about it.

On top of that, the Davis Cup format rewards teams that have one transcendent player. Anything can happen in a Davis Cup weekend, to be sure, but when you have a near-sure thing in a player like Djokovic, you are basically coming into the weekend up 2-0.

And that's exactly the type of player the US is lacking.

They don't feature a player that gives the team an automatic win. They have nice players, sure, but you can't bank on them the way Serbia banks on Djokovic and the way Spain banks on Nadal or even Ferrer.


I guess I need to change my tune about the current version of the US Davis Cup team. I like their depth. There is no real weak spot in the lineup and against teams with no real elite player, that will almost always be enough to get the job done. But when they do come up against a team with that type of player, they are woefully unable to fight fire with fire.