Yesterday I posted five overarching thoughts on Davis Cup weekend as a whole, but now that we are just a few hours from the first ball of the weekend, it's time that I give my predictions on how these ties will play out.
Canada vs. Spain (Vancouver, Canada, Indoor Hard Court)
I talked yesterday about how important this tie is for Canada. This is a real chance for Canada to make a statement about the state of tennis in their country. Even though Spain is without several top players, name recognition of Spain as a world power would still force people to take notice if the Canadians were to get a win.
Don't feel bad for Spain. Even without Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro, they still boast two singles players ranked 34 and 51 and a doubles player ranked third in the world. Ultimately, though, I think a home tie and a friendly court surface will help Canada to a win.
Milos Raonic (CAN) d. Albert Ramos (ESP)
Marcel Granollers (ESP) d. Frank Dancevic (CAN)
Vasek Pospisil/Daniel Nestor (CAN) d. Marc Lopez/Marcell Granollers (ESP)
Milos Raonic (CAN) d. Marcel Granollers (ESP)
Frank Dancevic (CAN) vs. Albert Ramos (ESP) - dead rubber
Italy vs. Croatia (Turin, Italy, Indoor Clay)
This tie is going to fly under the radar because of a general lack of star power, but I'm really intrigued by this pairing of teams.
Italy has to be happy with their team coming into this weekend. Top player Andreas Seppi had a great run to the round of 16 at the Australian Open. Along the way, he beat Croatia's own Marin Cilic. Fabio Fognini is a really solid player in his own right and his fun-loving demeanor is always refreshing.
Croatia has the highest-ranked player in this tie, Marin Cilic, but he is coming off of a somewhat disappointing performance in Australia, complete with that aforementioned loss to Seppi. It also doesn't help that clay is far from his favorite surface. Cilic and Ivan Dodig are a nice combination at the top, but they aren't nearly as deep as Italy, and quite frankly, I like Seppi and Fognini better as a duo.
Marin Cilic (CRO) d. Fabio Fognini (ITA
Andreas Seppi (ITA) d. Ivan Dodig (CRO)
Paolo Lorenzi/Simon Bolelli (ITA) d. Nikola Mektic/Mate Pavic (CRO)
Andreas Seppi (ITA) d. Marin Cilic (CRO)
Fabio Fognini (ITA) vs. Ivan Dodig (CRO) - dead rubber
Belgium vs. Serbia (Charleroi, Belgium, Indoor Clay)
Quietly, Belgium has put together a pretty decent Davis Cup squad. David Goffin is a top-50 player that has yet to reach his potential. Steve Darcis is a consistent top-100 player. Olivier Rochus, the elder statesman, has been ranked as high as 24th in the world and he certainly isn't going to be awed when he goes up against some of the big names the Belgians will face in Davis Cup play.
Unfortunately, Serbia is just better. Janko Tipsarevic pulled out of the event this weekend due to injury, but the Serbs still boast the top player in the world, Novak Djokovic, a steady veteran in Viktor Troicki and an established doubles champion in Nenad Zimonjic. The red clay will help Belgium a bit, but I don't think it will make a ton of difference.
Viktor Troicki (SRB) d. David Goffin (BEL)
Novak Djokovic (SRB) d. Olivier Rochus (BEL)
Nenad Zimonjic/Viktor Troicki (SRB) d. Steve Darcis/Ruben Bemelmans (BEL)
Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. David Goffin (BEL) - dead rubber
Viktor Troicki (SRB) vs. Olivier Rochus (BEL) - dead rubber
USA vs. Brazil (Jacksonville, Florida, USA, Indoor Hard)
On paper, the US shouldn't have a ton of trouble in Jacksonville. The Brazilians only have one singles player, Thomaz Bellucci, that should scare them at all and even Bellucci isn't a huge threat on faster courts, which this court is expected to be.
If you dig a bit deeper, though, there are some concerns for the US. First and foremost is the health of John Isner. He pulled out of the Australian Open and that was only a few weeks ago, so you have to wonder how he's feeling. The Brazilians also have a decent shot at neutralizing the secret weapon for the US, the Bryan brothers. In most Davis Cup ties, the US has the doubles point all but wrapped up before a ball is even hit, but that won't be the case this weekend. Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares are a talented team and could give the Bryans problems.
In the end, I think the US will be pushed more than they would have liked in their individual matches, but I think they manage to come out on top pretty cleanly.
Sam Querrey (USA) d. Thomaz Bellucci (BRA)
John Isner (USA) d. Thiago Alves (BRA)
Mike Bryan/Bob Bryan (USA) d. Bruno Soares/Marcelo Melo (BRA)
John Isner (USA) vs. Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) - dead rubber
Sam Querrey (USA) vs. Thiago Alves (BRA) - dead rubber
France vs. Israel (Rouen, France, Indoor Hard)
The Israelis are a fun team to root for in my mind. This is not only because they are an underdog in just about any World Group tie in which they palay, but because their best player, Dudi Sela, has an everyman feel to him. He's only 5'9" and he's a real scrapper on the court. I like being able to get behind a player like that.
It's just a shame that being fun to watch doesn't necessarily mean that the team will be successful. The French are bringing their A-Team and I don't give Israel much of a chance.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) d. Amir Weintraub (ISR)
Richard Gasquet (FRA) d. Dudi Sela (ISR)
Julien Benneteau/Michael Llodra (FRA) d. Dudi Sela/Jonathan Erlich (ISR)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Dudi Sela - dead rubber
Richard Gasquet vs. Amir Weintraub - dead rubber
Argentina vs. Germany (Buenos Aires, Argentina, Outdoor Clay)
This might end up being the most competitive tie of the weekend. The atmosphere obviously favors Argentina. They are playing at home and this team, led by Juan Monaco, loves to play on clay.
The personnel advantage, however, has to go to Germany. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a really underrated player and Florian Mayer, a top-30 player himself, is certainly no scrub. To top it off, David Nalbandian, a player who probably plays as hard in Davis Cup as any player in the world, is only playing doubles for Argentina.
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) d. Carlos Berlocq (ARG)
Juan Monaco (ARG) d. Florian Mayer (GER)
David Nalbandian/Horacio Zeballos (ARG) d. Philipp Kohlschreiber/Christopher Kas (GER)
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) d. Juan Monaco (ARG)
Florian Mayer (GER) d. Carlos Berlocq (ARG)
Kazakhstan vs. Austria (Astana, Kazakhstan, Indoor Clay)
When the draw came out, I think both of these teams breathed a sigh of relief. The World Group is littered with traditional tennis powers, but these two teams got a manageable tie since they drew each other. It's that relatively level playing field that makes this an interesting tie to watch.
Unfortunately, this tie won't be as much fun as it could have been, as Kazakhstan's best player, Mikhail Kukushkin, will not play. Without a battle-tested player in Kukushkin to face off against, the advantage of having Jurgen Melzer on their team gets even bigger for the Austrians. Ultimately, I think it's that advantage that puts them over the top.
Andrey Golubev (KAZ) d. Andreas Haider-Maurer (AUT)
Jurgen Melzer (AUT) d. Evgeny Korolev (KAZ)
Julian Knowle/Alexander Peya (AUT) d. Andrey Golubev/Yuriy Schukin (KAZ)
Jurgen Melzer (AUT) d. Andrey Golubev (KAZ)
Andreas Haider-Maurer (AUT) vs. Evgeny Korolev (KAZ) - dead rubber
Switzerland vs. Czech Republic (Geneva, Switzerland, Indoor Hard)
Here we have a matchup of two teams missing big pieces of their respective Davis Cup puzzles. The Swiss will be without Roger Federer, only the greatest player of all time and the Czechs will be without Radek Stepanek, the anchor on the team that won the Davis Cup last season.
I have very little feeling about who is going to win this one. If it comes down to who misses their missing player the most, I think the Swiss will win out. Federer often skips Davis Cup, so it's nothing new, while the Czechs are used to having Stepanek. Although I'm also not sure that the Swiss have the depth behind Stanislas Wawrinka to take down the defending champs. This really is a toss-up, but I will take a stab at it.
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) d. Lukas Rosol (CZE)
Tomas Berdych (CZE) d. Henri Laaksonen (SUI)
Marco Chiudinelli/Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) d. Ivo Minar/Jiri Vesely (CZE)
Tomas Berdych (CZE) d. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
Lukas Rosol (CZE) d. Henri Laaksonen (SUI)
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Five Thoughts Ahead of Davis Cup Weekend
I love everything about Davis Cup.
I obviously love tennis. That's what I'm writing this blog.
I'm also a sucker for international competition. Every four years, I drop everything and dive deep into the Olympics. The World Cup is what made me a casual soccer fan. I can't stand golf, particularly watching golf on television, but when it's time for the Ryder Cup, I'll watch a round or two.
The tennis community is somewhat lukewarm on the Davis Cup in general, but I'm hopeful that if you're one of the ones that's on the fence about how you feel about the event, I can get you off the fence with my five thoughts ahead of the weekend.
- This weekend will give us a look into the future of the United States Davis Cup team. Over the last five or six years, there hasn't been a ton of stability within the program. Roddick won some big matches for the US over the years, but later in his career, injuries and his choice to bypass the event took him out of the lineup at times. Mardy Fish's late-career resurgence put him back in the thick of things, but he has had trouble staying in the lineup. Sam Querrey's rise up the rankings put him in the mix, but then injuries took him right back out for over a year. Ryan Harrison has made cameos over the last couple of years, but his game hasn't come along as quickly as anyone would like.
But with Roddick's retirement, Fish's heart condition that may very well end his career and solid seasons from John Isner and Querrey, I think we know, barring something unforeseen, what the US lineup is going to look like for, hopefully, the next three years. Isner and Querrey should have five or six more years of quality play left and the Bryan brothers have said that they aren't planning on retiring until after the 2016 Olympics. It's not Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Jim Courier and Todd Martin, but it's not bad.
- Don't look now, but Canada finds themselves in a must-win match. When the team nominations were announced, I thought the Canadians had a more than realistic chance of beating a Spain team that was going to be without Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer. Now that Nicolas Almagro is going to be out with injury, Canada is the odds-on favorite.
It's probably not fair, as a matter of fact I know it's not fair, but there will be a ton of criticism heaped on young star Milos Raonic if the Canadians don't come through. He has a reputation for wilting against the top players on tour on the big stages and losing this weekend certainly won't help change that perception.
- If you're a fan of soap operas, Argentina is the Davis Cup team for you. It seems that it's always something with them.
The most notable issue for the Argentine team, as it has been for several years now, is the power struggle at the top. David Nalbandian takes a special pride in Davis Cup. He's something of an honorary team captain in this way. He has certainly been a warrior over the years for Argentina. No one can dispute that. During this time, he has almost always been the best player on the team as well, though.
Now that's no longer the case. Juan Martin del Potro is far and away the best player on the squad and in the eyes of some, that makes him more equipped to be the leader of the team. Needless to say Nalbandian doesn't agree.
Those issues shouldn't rear their ugly head this weekend as del Potro isn't playing, but injuries and form will be an issue. Nalbandian seems to be chronically injured at this point in his career. Juan Monaco, the second-best Argentine player in the world (don't tell Nalbandian), seems to be healthy enough, but he got blown off the court in the first round of the Australian Open.They are at home and have the choice of surface, two factors that might be their saving grace against what should be a game German squad.
- Quietly, Switzerland and the Czech Republic has turned into a really interesting match. The Czechs are the defending champions, but they aren't at full strength. Radek Stepanek, who came up huge in the final last year, is out with injury.
Tomas Berdych is still there and Lukas Rosol is a solid player, but the two players behind them are ranked 192 and 272 in the world. Berdych and Rosol are going to be asked to do a lot.
On the other side of the net, Switzerland will be without Roger Federer, but with the way Stanislas Wawrinka played against Novak Djokovic in their match at the Australian Open, that might be okay. The Berdych/Wawrinka match has chance to be special.
- For Davis Cup junkies like me, it doesn't get much better than Austria vs. Kazakhstan. These two nations won't come to mind when you are thinking of tennis powers and yet, one of these teams is going to advance to the quarterfinals of the Davis Cup. I think that's pretty neat.
I think it will also be a really competitive tie. Only one player from these two teams really stands out and that's Jurgen Melzer. Melzer, at one time a top-15 player on tour, is a perfect Davis Cup player. He is a very solid singles player that will be expected to control his singles matches this weekend and he's also an accomplished doubles player, even though he isn't often asked to play doubles.
Don't count out Kazakhstan, though. This team has some fight. Just making it to the world group a couple of years ago was a huge accomplishment and staying there has been even bigger. Mikhail Kukushkin, their top player, finds himself ranked 155 right now, but he has been as high as 49 in the world and he made it to the Australian Open round of 16 in 2012. Although it probably doesn't bode well that he lost to Jurgen Melzer in straight sets in the first round of the 2013 Australian Open.
I obviously love tennis. That's what I'm writing this blog.
I'm also a sucker for international competition. Every four years, I drop everything and dive deep into the Olympics. The World Cup is what made me a casual soccer fan. I can't stand golf, particularly watching golf on television, but when it's time for the Ryder Cup, I'll watch a round or two.
The tennis community is somewhat lukewarm on the Davis Cup in general, but I'm hopeful that if you're one of the ones that's on the fence about how you feel about the event, I can get you off the fence with my five thoughts ahead of the weekend.
- This weekend will give us a look into the future of the United States Davis Cup team. Over the last five or six years, there hasn't been a ton of stability within the program. Roddick won some big matches for the US over the years, but later in his career, injuries and his choice to bypass the event took him out of the lineup at times. Mardy Fish's late-career resurgence put him back in the thick of things, but he has had trouble staying in the lineup. Sam Querrey's rise up the rankings put him in the mix, but then injuries took him right back out for over a year. Ryan Harrison has made cameos over the last couple of years, but his game hasn't come along as quickly as anyone would like.
But with Roddick's retirement, Fish's heart condition that may very well end his career and solid seasons from John Isner and Querrey, I think we know, barring something unforeseen, what the US lineup is going to look like for, hopefully, the next three years. Isner and Querrey should have five or six more years of quality play left and the Bryan brothers have said that they aren't planning on retiring until after the 2016 Olympics. It's not Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Jim Courier and Todd Martin, but it's not bad.
- Don't look now, but Canada finds themselves in a must-win match. When the team nominations were announced, I thought the Canadians had a more than realistic chance of beating a Spain team that was going to be without Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer. Now that Nicolas Almagro is going to be out with injury, Canada is the odds-on favorite.
It's probably not fair, as a matter of fact I know it's not fair, but there will be a ton of criticism heaped on young star Milos Raonic if the Canadians don't come through. He has a reputation for wilting against the top players on tour on the big stages and losing this weekend certainly won't help change that perception.
- If you're a fan of soap operas, Argentina is the Davis Cup team for you. It seems that it's always something with them.
The most notable issue for the Argentine team, as it has been for several years now, is the power struggle at the top. David Nalbandian takes a special pride in Davis Cup. He's something of an honorary team captain in this way. He has certainly been a warrior over the years for Argentina. No one can dispute that. During this time, he has almost always been the best player on the team as well, though.
Now that's no longer the case. Juan Martin del Potro is far and away the best player on the squad and in the eyes of some, that makes him more equipped to be the leader of the team. Needless to say Nalbandian doesn't agree.
Those issues shouldn't rear their ugly head this weekend as del Potro isn't playing, but injuries and form will be an issue. Nalbandian seems to be chronically injured at this point in his career. Juan Monaco, the second-best Argentine player in the world (don't tell Nalbandian), seems to be healthy enough, but he got blown off the court in the first round of the Australian Open.They are at home and have the choice of surface, two factors that might be their saving grace against what should be a game German squad.
- Quietly, Switzerland and the Czech Republic has turned into a really interesting match. The Czechs are the defending champions, but they aren't at full strength. Radek Stepanek, who came up huge in the final last year, is out with injury.
Tomas Berdych is still there and Lukas Rosol is a solid player, but the two players behind them are ranked 192 and 272 in the world. Berdych and Rosol are going to be asked to do a lot.
On the other side of the net, Switzerland will be without Roger Federer, but with the way Stanislas Wawrinka played against Novak Djokovic in their match at the Australian Open, that might be okay. The Berdych/Wawrinka match has chance to be special.
- For Davis Cup junkies like me, it doesn't get much better than Austria vs. Kazakhstan. These two nations won't come to mind when you are thinking of tennis powers and yet, one of these teams is going to advance to the quarterfinals of the Davis Cup. I think that's pretty neat.
I think it will also be a really competitive tie. Only one player from these two teams really stands out and that's Jurgen Melzer. Melzer, at one time a top-15 player on tour, is a perfect Davis Cup player. He is a very solid singles player that will be expected to control his singles matches this weekend and he's also an accomplished doubles player, even though he isn't often asked to play doubles.
Don't count out Kazakhstan, though. This team has some fight. Just making it to the world group a couple of years ago was a huge accomplishment and staying there has been even bigger. Mikhail Kukushkin, their top player, finds himself ranked 155 right now, but he has been as high as 49 in the world and he made it to the Australian Open round of 16 in 2012. Although it probably doesn't bode well that he lost to Jurgen Melzer in straight sets in the first round of the 2013 Australian Open.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Just What is a Dirt Rat?
I'm happy you asked.
A dirt rat is a tennis term with a couple of definitions.
Often times, it is used as something of a derogatory term. Used this way, it is a name given to a player that does most of his or her damage at clay court tournaments, many of which take place in far-flung places in Europe and Latin America.
Taking it one step further, it can also imply that said player hoards points, thus inflating their ranking, based almost solely on their performances in these clay court events.
Until his mid-to-late career push to be a perennial top-five player, David Ferrer might have been lumped into this group. Right now, I'd have to say that Juan Monaco fits this bill. I'm not trying to take anything away from Monaco. He is a solid pro and he has played some of his best tennis over the last year or so. But he's not the 12th best player in the world, as his ranking would indicate.
Of his seven career tournament wins, only one is on a surface other than clay. He has been the runner-up at nine different tournaments in his career and, again, only one has been on a surface other than clay. His first-round exit in straight sets at the Australian Open just goes to show what can happen to him when he plays off of his favorite surface.
So that's one use.
The other use of the term is far more positive.
I like to think of a dirt rat as a real grinder. A player that goes all out for every point. Think the aforementioned David Ferrer or a couple favorites of mine, Marcos Baghdatis and Lleyton Hewitt.
I have a lot of respect for this type of player. There is something to be said about going into a match knowing that you don't have the big weapons other players have and still finding a way to be competitive. Above all else, these guys bring their best every single day.
That's the spirit I'm going for in this blog. I'm going to cover tennis from all angles. I will be looking to cover the Grand Slam tournaments, sure, but I also want to bring coverage of smaller tournaments all over the globe.
I'm looking forward to getting started. I hope you will come along for the ride.
A dirt rat is a tennis term with a couple of definitions.
Often times, it is used as something of a derogatory term. Used this way, it is a name given to a player that does most of his or her damage at clay court tournaments, many of which take place in far-flung places in Europe and Latin America.
Taking it one step further, it can also imply that said player hoards points, thus inflating their ranking, based almost solely on their performances in these clay court events.
Until his mid-to-late career push to be a perennial top-five player, David Ferrer might have been lumped into this group. Right now, I'd have to say that Juan Monaco fits this bill. I'm not trying to take anything away from Monaco. He is a solid pro and he has played some of his best tennis over the last year or so. But he's not the 12th best player in the world, as his ranking would indicate.
Of his seven career tournament wins, only one is on a surface other than clay. He has been the runner-up at nine different tournaments in his career and, again, only one has been on a surface other than clay. His first-round exit in straight sets at the Australian Open just goes to show what can happen to him when he plays off of his favorite surface.
So that's one use.
The other use of the term is far more positive.
I like to think of a dirt rat as a real grinder. A player that goes all out for every point. Think the aforementioned David Ferrer or a couple favorites of mine, Marcos Baghdatis and Lleyton Hewitt.
I have a lot of respect for this type of player. There is something to be said about going into a match knowing that you don't have the big weapons other players have and still finding a way to be competitive. Above all else, these guys bring their best every single day.
That's the spirit I'm going for in this blog. I'm going to cover tennis from all angles. I will be looking to cover the Grand Slam tournaments, sure, but I also want to bring coverage of smaller tournaments all over the globe.
I'm looking forward to getting started. I hope you will come along for the ride.
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