Yesterday I posted five overarching thoughts on Davis Cup weekend as a whole, but now that we are just a few hours from the first ball of the weekend, it's time that I give my predictions on how these ties will play out.
Canada vs. Spain (Vancouver, Canada, Indoor Hard Court)
I talked yesterday about how important this tie is for Canada. This is a real chance for Canada to make a statement about the state of tennis in their country. Even though Spain is without several top players, name recognition of Spain as a world power would still force people to take notice if the Canadians were to get a win.
Don't feel bad for Spain. Even without Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro, they still boast two singles players ranked 34 and 51 and a doubles player ranked third in the world. Ultimately, though, I think a home tie and a friendly court surface will help Canada to a win.
Milos Raonic (CAN) d. Albert Ramos (ESP)
Marcel Granollers (ESP) d. Frank Dancevic (CAN)
Vasek Pospisil/Daniel Nestor (CAN) d. Marc Lopez/Marcell Granollers (ESP)
Milos Raonic (CAN) d. Marcel Granollers (ESP)
Frank Dancevic (CAN) vs. Albert Ramos (ESP) - dead rubber
Italy vs. Croatia (Turin, Italy, Indoor Clay)
This tie is going to fly under the radar because of a general lack of star power, but I'm really intrigued by this pairing of teams.
Italy has to be happy with their team coming into this weekend. Top player Andreas Seppi had a great run to the round of 16 at the Australian Open. Along the way, he beat Croatia's own Marin Cilic. Fabio Fognini is a really solid player in his own right and his fun-loving demeanor is always refreshing.
Croatia has the highest-ranked player in this tie, Marin Cilic, but he is coming off of a somewhat disappointing performance in Australia, complete with that aforementioned loss to Seppi. It also doesn't help that clay is far from his favorite surface. Cilic and Ivan Dodig are a nice combination at the top, but they aren't nearly as deep as Italy, and quite frankly, I like Seppi and Fognini better as a duo.
Marin Cilic (CRO) d. Fabio Fognini (ITA
Andreas Seppi (ITA) d. Ivan Dodig (CRO)
Paolo Lorenzi/Simon Bolelli (ITA) d. Nikola Mektic/Mate Pavic (CRO)
Andreas Seppi (ITA) d. Marin Cilic (CRO)
Fabio Fognini (ITA) vs. Ivan Dodig (CRO) - dead rubber
Belgium vs. Serbia (Charleroi, Belgium, Indoor Clay)
Quietly, Belgium has put together a pretty decent Davis Cup squad. David Goffin is a top-50 player that has yet to reach his potential. Steve Darcis is a consistent top-100 player. Olivier Rochus, the elder statesman, has been ranked as high as 24th in the world and he certainly isn't going to be awed when he goes up against some of the big names the Belgians will face in Davis Cup play.
Unfortunately, Serbia is just better. Janko Tipsarevic pulled out of the event this weekend due to injury, but the Serbs still boast the top player in the world, Novak Djokovic, a steady veteran in Viktor Troicki and an established doubles champion in Nenad Zimonjic. The red clay will help Belgium a bit, but I don't think it will make a ton of difference.
Viktor Troicki (SRB) d. David Goffin (BEL)
Novak Djokovic (SRB) d. Olivier Rochus (BEL)
Nenad Zimonjic/Viktor Troicki (SRB) d. Steve Darcis/Ruben Bemelmans (BEL)
Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. David Goffin (BEL) - dead rubber
Viktor Troicki (SRB) vs. Olivier Rochus (BEL) - dead rubber
USA vs. Brazil (Jacksonville, Florida, USA, Indoor Hard)
On paper, the US shouldn't have a ton of trouble in Jacksonville. The Brazilians only have one singles player, Thomaz Bellucci, that should scare them at all and even Bellucci isn't a huge threat on faster courts, which this court is expected to be.
If you dig a bit deeper, though, there are some concerns for the US. First and foremost is the health of John Isner. He pulled out of the Australian Open and that was only a few weeks ago, so you have to wonder how he's feeling. The Brazilians also have a decent shot at neutralizing the secret weapon for the US, the Bryan brothers. In most Davis Cup ties, the US has the doubles point all but wrapped up before a ball is even hit, but that won't be the case this weekend. Marcelo Melo and Bruno Soares are a talented team and could give the Bryans problems.
In the end, I think the US will be pushed more than they would have liked in their individual matches, but I think they manage to come out on top pretty cleanly.
Sam Querrey (USA) d. Thomaz Bellucci (BRA)
John Isner (USA) d. Thiago Alves (BRA)
Mike Bryan/Bob Bryan (USA) d. Bruno Soares/Marcelo Melo (BRA)
John Isner (USA) vs. Thomaz Bellucci (BRA) - dead rubber
Sam Querrey (USA) vs. Thiago Alves (BRA) - dead rubber
France vs. Israel (Rouen, France, Indoor Hard)
The Israelis are a fun team to root for in my mind. This is not only because they are an underdog in just about any World Group tie in which they palay, but because their best player, Dudi Sela, has an everyman feel to him. He's only 5'9" and he's a real scrapper on the court. I like being able to get behind a player like that.
It's just a shame that being fun to watch doesn't necessarily mean that the team will be successful. The French are bringing their A-Team and I don't give Israel much of a chance.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) d. Amir Weintraub (ISR)
Richard Gasquet (FRA) d. Dudi Sela (ISR)
Julien Benneteau/Michael Llodra (FRA) d. Dudi Sela/Jonathan Erlich (ISR)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Dudi Sela - dead rubber
Richard Gasquet vs. Amir Weintraub - dead rubber
Argentina vs. Germany (Buenos Aires, Argentina, Outdoor Clay)
This might end up being the most competitive tie of the weekend. The atmosphere obviously favors Argentina. They are playing at home and this team, led by Juan Monaco, loves to play on clay.
The personnel advantage, however, has to go to Germany. Philipp Kohlschreiber is a really underrated player and Florian Mayer, a top-30 player himself, is certainly no scrub. To top it off, David Nalbandian, a player who probably plays as hard in Davis Cup as any player in the world, is only playing doubles for Argentina.
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) d. Carlos Berlocq (ARG)
Juan Monaco (ARG) d. Florian Mayer (GER)
David Nalbandian/Horacio Zeballos (ARG) d. Philipp Kohlschreiber/Christopher Kas (GER)
Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) d. Juan Monaco (ARG)
Florian Mayer (GER) d. Carlos Berlocq (ARG)
Kazakhstan vs. Austria (Astana, Kazakhstan, Indoor Clay)
When the draw came out, I think both of these teams breathed a sigh of relief. The World Group is littered with traditional tennis powers, but these two teams got a manageable tie since they drew each other. It's that relatively level playing field that makes this an interesting tie to watch.
Unfortunately, this tie won't be as much fun as it could have been, as Kazakhstan's best player, Mikhail Kukushkin, will not play. Without a battle-tested player in Kukushkin to face off against, the advantage of having Jurgen Melzer on their team gets even bigger for the Austrians. Ultimately, I think it's that advantage that puts them over the top.
Andrey Golubev (KAZ) d. Andreas Haider-Maurer (AUT)
Jurgen Melzer (AUT) d. Evgeny Korolev (KAZ)
Julian Knowle/Alexander Peya (AUT) d. Andrey Golubev/Yuriy Schukin (KAZ)
Jurgen Melzer (AUT) d. Andrey Golubev (KAZ)
Andreas Haider-Maurer (AUT) vs. Evgeny Korolev (KAZ) - dead rubber
Switzerland vs. Czech Republic (Geneva, Switzerland, Indoor Hard)
Here we have a matchup of two teams missing big pieces of their respective Davis Cup puzzles. The Swiss will be without Roger Federer, only the greatest player of all time and the Czechs will be without Radek Stepanek, the anchor on the team that won the Davis Cup last season.
I have very little feeling about who is going to win this one. If it comes down to who misses their missing player the most, I think the Swiss will win out. Federer often skips Davis Cup, so it's nothing new, while the Czechs are used to having Stepanek. Although I'm also not sure that the Swiss have the depth behind Stanislas Wawrinka to take down the defending champs. This really is a toss-up, but I will take a stab at it.
Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) d. Lukas Rosol (CZE)
Tomas Berdych (CZE) d. Henri Laaksonen (SUI)
Marco Chiudinelli/Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI) d. Ivo Minar/Jiri Vesely (CZE)
Tomas Berdych (CZE) d. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI)
Lukas Rosol (CZE) d. Henri Laaksonen (SUI)
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